Sumdorong Chu in Arunachal, the 73 Day Doklam confrontation in 2017, Chinese incursions in Asaphila, Tuting and Chaklagam areas of Arunachal Pradesh in 2017-2018.

Recently Indo-China conflict flared up in the last few months at Pangong Tso lake in Ladakh, North Sikkim and violent clashes at Galwan Valley during night of 15/16 June 2020 which resulted in death of 20 Indians soldiers and 40 plus Chinese soldiers. Tense situation exists all along the Indo-China border.

China is a major world power with the largest military of the world and is the second largest economy in the world. China’s defence budget is four times India’s defence budget and military infrastructure is better developed in Chinese side. Both nations are major nuclear powers armed with many ballistic missiles. A major Indo-China conflict would be disastrous for both nations.

History

On gaining Independence, India shared land borders with Pakistan, Myanmar, Nepal, Bhutan and Tibet. After the defeat of Tibetan forces by China in 1950, India was one of the first countries to officially recognise China in 1951 resulting in China becoming a neighbour of India.  

McMahon Line: The McMahon Line demarcated the eastern border between India along Arunachal Pradesh and China. About 1030 km in length, the McMahon Line followed the watershed principle of map making and, to the extent possible, ran along the highest ridges of these eastern Himalayan ranges running from east of Bhutan to the tri-junction of India, China and Myanmar. The McMahon line was created during the Shimla Agreement of 1914. The British Indian representative was Sir Henry McMahon, then Secretary in the Indian Foreign Department. The Tibetan representative was Lama Lonchen Shatra and China was represented by Chinese diplomat named Ivan Chen. After almost a year of negotiations, the Indian and Tibetan representatives signed the agreement. The Chinese representative objected to certain issues between Inner and Outer Tibet and refused to sign the agreement. The McMahon line was first published in a Survey of India Map in 1937.

On 15 August 1947, when India became an independent nation, North East Frontier Agency (NEFA) became an integral part of India. It was administrated by the Ministry of External Affairs with the Governor of Assam acting as agent to the President of India.

In 1951, Major R Khathing, a civil servant, accompanied by some Assam Rifles troops overthrew the Tibetans from Tawang and annexed Tawang into India. In 1954, India and China signed the Panchsheel Agreement (Five Principles). The main points were:-

  1. Mutual respect for each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.
  2. Mutual non-aggression.
  3. Mutual non-interference.
  4. Equality and mutual benefit.
  5. Peaceful co-existence.

After the failure of the Tibetan Uprising, the Dalai Lama fled to India via Tawang-Bomdila in 1959 and was granted asylum in India.

The then Chinese Premier Zhou-en-Lai visited India many times and proposed that India drop its claim on Aksai Chin and China would withdraw its claim on NEFA. Prime Minister Nehru refused the proposals each time.

1962 Indo-China War: On 20 October 1962, the Chinese forces commenced their attack on India simultaneously in the Western and Eastern sectors. The Chinese army quickly penetrated Indian defences along five axes. In the Tawang sector, the Chinese forces quickly overran Tawang and reached Sela pass. Similarly the Chinese forces penetrated Indian defences along Taksing-Limeking, Mechukha-Tato, Manigong-Tato, Gelling-Tuting and Kibithoo-Walong sectors. In the Western sector, the Chinese forces quickly overran Chip Chap Valley, Galwan Valley and Pangong Tso Lake. On 24 October, there was a lull in the fighting and Chinese Premier Zhou-en-Lai offered a peace proposal which was refused by Prime Minister Nehru. After the refusal of the peace proposal, fighting resumed on 14 November with Chinese forces re-commencing attack. After reaching its claim lines, on 19 November, the Chinese Premier Zhou-en-Lai declared a unilateral cease fire starting midnight 21 November. By the ceasefire, the Chinese forces had penetrated almost 100 km into Indian Territory in Arunachal Pradesh near Tezpur in Assam. After the ceasefire, the Chinese forces withdrew behind the McMahon line in the Eastern sector. In the Western sector the Chinese forces withdrew 20 km behind the line of actual control.

Present Situation

Presently, Arunachal Pradesh shares 160 km border with Bhutan in the East, 1030 km with China in the North and North-East and 440 km with Myanmar in the East and South. There are no major border disputes with Bhutan and Myanmar. However many disputes are still existing between India and China:-

(a) The International Border in both Western and Eastern Sectors are yet to be finalised.

(b) Due to non-signing by the Chinese representative during the 1914 Shimla Agreement, China still does not recognise the McMahon line

(c) China still claims almost all of Arunachal Pradesh calling it ‘Southern Tibet’.

(d) Issue of stapled visa by China to people from Arunachal Pradesh.

(e) Chinese objections to visits by senior Indian officials to Arunachal Pradesh.

(f) Frequent skirmishes and violent clashes along the Indo-Chinese border.

Chinese Infrastructure and Military Progress in Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR)

In the last few decades, China has systematically gone about developing infrastructure and military preparedness in TAR.

Infrastructure.       Despite the high altitudes of 7000 - 16000 ft and tough terrain, China has invested heavily to rapidly develop infrastructure in the region:-

Air Fields.     Considering the high altitudes, China has constructed many air bases with longer runways along the Indo-China border. The major airfields facing Arunachal Pradesh are Kongka Dzong, Hoping, Linzhi, Bangda and Kunming. Out of these Linzhi is located south of the Tsangpo (Brahmaputra) river at about 15 km only from the Arunachal border. Many Chinese military aircraft and other systems are regularly deployed in these bases.

Railways.      Some years back China inaugurated the Golmud to Lhasa railway line which is considered as the highest railway line in the world. This railway line has been extended to Shigatse this year. There are plans to extend the railway line to Nyalam on the Nepal border and Dromo on the Sikkim border. Further the railway line is being extended to Linzhi and Kunming. On the Western sector the same railway line is being extended to Khotan opposite Ladakh.

Roads. China has also invested heavily in developing the road connectivity in TAR. There are all weather roads running all along the border with India.

Dams. China is in the process of constructing three dams on the Yarlung Tsangpo. The first run-of-the-river dam at Zangmu has been operationalised in October 2015. The remaining dams are under construction. These would help in surplus power availability which in turn will lead to development in the area.

Underground Tunnels. Over the last few decades, China has built a vast network of tunnels. These tunnels are used to park/store Ballistic Missiles, Aircraft, Submarines/ships, armoured vehicles, ammunition dumps etc. It would not be wrong to say that China has built a ‘Great Underground Wall’. These tunnels would offer protection from direct attack from the air.

Indian Infrastructure and Military Progress in the Eastern Sector

In the last few decades, India has also attempted to develop the infrastructure along the Indo-China border. However, even 58 years after the Chinese attack in 1962, adequate emphasis to develop infrastructure and military capabilities in the region is lacking.

Infrastructure. Though attempts are on to develop the infrastructure, the attention and urgency are inadequate:-

Air Fields.     Almost all major airfields are located in the plains of Assam and West Bengal. Recently 7 Advanced Landing Grounds (ALG) has been re-laid/developed in Arunachal Pradesh at Pasighat, Tawang, Ziro, Menchukha, Alo, Tuting and Walong. Except for Pasighat where the runway length is about 2 km, rest runway lengths are below 1.5 km. These runway lengths will not support rapid deployment of troops and equipment on medium/heavy aircraft.

Railways Arunachal Pradesh is connected by railways to Bhalukpong and Naharlagun only, both of which are in the foothills. The Murkong Selek to Pasighat railway has been sanctioned but work has not yet commenced.

Roads. The Trans Arunachal road is planned and under construction. However, the vital Tezpur-Tawang, Likabali-Daporijo-Taksing, Likabali-Aalo, Pasighat-Tuting, Aalo-Mechukha-Manigong and Tezu-Kibithu roads are in poor condition.

Dams. India is still struggling to complete major dams over Siang, Subansiri and other rivers due to public opposition and environmental studies.

Blast Protection/ Underground Structures.    There are minimal blast protection to aircraft, key installations at Indian bases along the Eastern sector. Underground structures for protection from aerial attacks and nuclear radiation are also negligible. Lack of blast protection and underground shelters will render Indian aircraft and key installations vulnerable to aerial attacks.

Comparison of Military Capabilities

A brief comparison of military capabilities of both the countries is tabulated below:-

 

CHINA

INDIA

MILITARY BUDGET

US$166.107 billion (2.0% of GDP)

US$45.785 billion (2.5% of GDP)

MILITARY PERSONNEL

Active troops: 2,285,000 (800,000 reserve personnel)

Active troops: 1,325,000 (2,142,821 reserve personnel)

AIRCRAFT (ALL TYPES)

9500

3500

FIGHTER AIRCRAFT

2066

629

HELICOPTERS

1104

604

MAIN BATTLE TANKS

3000

600

BATTLE SHIPS

670

200

SUBMARINES

67 (NUCLEAR SUBMARINES INCLUDED)

15

NUCLEAR WARHEADS

250

110

 

Surface to Surface Missiles (SSM).       There is a major difference in the capabilities and numbers of SSMs of both countries. The Chinese SSM inventory includes the DF-5, DF-31A, DF-31, DF-4, DF-3A, DF-21 etc. The DF-5 has a range of 13000 km plus and the DF-31A with a range of 11000 km plus. The submarine launched missiles include the JL-2 with range of 7000 km plus. This implies that Chinese SSM coverage is up to middle of South America, Australia and full India.

Indian SSMs include the Agni-I, Agni-II, Agni-III, Prithvi-I, Prithvi-II and Prithvi-III. Agni-III has range of 3000 km. Recently India has successfully test fired the Agni-V with range of 5000 km, but is yet to be inducted. With the Agni-V Indian SSM coverage will include full China. India is yet to develop a Submarine launched missile.

Lessons for India  

In order to match China, India needs to implement some concrete steps towards development of infrastructure along the Eastern border. These have been divided into Immediate and Long Term measures:-

Immediate Measures.           These measures need to be expedited and completed in the next few years.

(a)    Construct/Expedite the following important roads (All weather two lane roads):-

(i)     Tezpur-Tawang Road.

(ii)    Likabali-Daporijo-Taksing Road.

(iii)   Likabali-Aalo-Menchukha-Manigong Road.

(iv)   Pasighat-Tuting Road.

(v)    Tezu-Kibithu Road.

(vi)   Trans-Arunachal Highway.

(b)   Construct airfield with adequate runway length at the following places:-

(i)     Tawang Area.

(ii)    Daporijo Area.

(iii)   Aalo Area.

(iv)   Hayuliang/Hawai Area.

(c)    Build adequate Blast Protection Shelters for aircraft and other critical assets at military/Air Force bases.

(d)   Build adequate underground structures for Command & Control Centres for nuclear protection.

(e)   Build few ammunition/fuel storage centres north of the Brahmaputra.

Long Term Measures.  One big step initiated by central govt is Atmanirbhar Bharat. Atmanirbhar Bharat is envisaged to boost domestic production and reduce dependence on other nations including the vital defense manufacturing sector. In addition there is a country wide movement to boycott Chinese products. The measures require strategic policy decisions at the national level and time bound implementation strategy as listed below..

(a) Indigenise production of military equipment (Aircraft, Warships, Tanks, etc).

(b) Involve Private Sector in military production.

(c) Invest more in Research and Development.

(d) Finalise Border Delineation with China.

(e) Sign a water sharing treaty with China.

Conclusion

India is an emerging world power aiming for a permanent membership of the Security Council. India is almost matching China in economic growth and is poised to grow into a major economic power. For India to sustain the growing economy, India requires a stable and peaceful neighbourhood. Stable and peaceful neighbourhood can be ensured and supported only through economic and military power. In order to match China, the only alternative for India is to expedite the development of military/strategic infrastructure along the Indo-China border at the earliest. Development of infrastructure will allow rapid mobilisation of military personnel and equipment. Blast protection shelters and underground infrastructure will provide survivability of key personnel and military assets. Immediate measures should be accompanied by long term national policies leading to indigenisation of defence production. Unless India produces her own high quality military aircraft, warships, weapons she cannot aspire to be a world leader. To emphasise on this critical importance of developing military/strategic infrastructure along the Indo-China border, a quote by Chinese strategist Sun Tzu would be relevant.

“Victorious warriors win first and then go to war,

while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win” 

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12 November

INDO-CHINA Strategic Relations with Relevance to Arunachal Pradesh

- Group Captain M Panging Pao, VM (Retd)

Introduction

India & China shares 3488 km of land boundary and has an acrimonious relationship over last 60 Years. The major conflict was the Indo-China war of 1962 where Chinese forces entered almost 100 km inside India. There have been regular clashes at NathuLa in Sikkim in 1967, in 1987 at Sumdorong Chu in Arunachal, the 73 Day Doklam confrontation in 2017, Chinese incursions in Asaphila, Tuting and Chaklagam areas of Arunachal Pradesh in 2017-2018.

Recently Indo-China conflict flared up in the last few months at Pangong Tso lake in Ladakh, North Sikkim and violent clashes at Galwan Valley during night of 15/16 June 2020 which resulted in death of 20 Indians soldiers and 40 plus Chinese soldiers. Tense situation exists all along the Indo-China border.

China is a major world power with the largest military of the world and is the second largest economy in the world. China’s defence budget is four times India’s defence budget and military infrastructure is better developed in Chinese side. Both nations are major nuclear powers armed with many ballistic missiles. A major Indo-China conflict would be disastrous for both nations.

History

On gaining Independence, India shared land borders with Pakistan, Myanmar, Nepal, Bhutan and Tibet. After the defeat of Tibetan forces by China in 1950, India was one of the first countries to officially recognise China in 1951 resulting in China becoming a neighbour of India.  

McMahon Line: The McMahon Line demarcated the eastern border between India along Arunachal Pradesh and China. About 1030 km in length, the McMahon Line followed the watershed principle of map making and, to the extent possible, ran along the highest ridges of these eastern Himalayan ranges running from east of Bhutan to the tri-junction of India, China and Myanmar. The McMahon line was created during the Shimla Agreement of 1914. The British Indian representative was Sir Henry McMahon, then Secretary in the Indian Foreign Department. The Tibetan representative was Lama Lonchen Shatra and China was represented by Chinese diplomat named Ivan Chen. After almost a year of negotiations, the Indian and Tibetan representatives signed the agreement. The Chinese representative objected to certain issues between Inner and Outer Tibet and refused to sign the agreement. The McMahon line was first published in a Survey of India Map in 1937.

On 15 August 1947, when India became an independent nation, North East Frontier Agency (NEFA) became an integral part of India. It was administrated by the Ministry of External Affairs with the Governor of Assam acting as agent to the President of India.

In 1951, Major R Khathing, a civil servant, accompanied by some Assam Rifles troops overthrew the Tibetans from Tawang and annexed Tawang into India. In 1954, India and China signed the Panchsheel Agreement (Five Principles). The main points were:-

  1. Mutual respect for each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.
  2. Mutual non-aggression.
  3. Mutual non-interference.
  4. Equality and mutual benefit.
  5. Peaceful co-existence.

After the failure of the Tibetan Uprising, the Dalai Lama fled to India via Tawang-Bomdila in 1959 and was granted asylum in India.

The then Chinese Premier Zhou-en-Lai visited India many times and proposed that India drop its claim on Aksai Chin and China would withdraw its claim on NEFA. Prime Minister Nehru refused the proposals each time.

1962 Indo-China War: On 20 October 1962, the Chinese forces commenced their attack on India simultaneously in the Western and Eastern sectors. The Chinese army quickly penetrated Indian defences along five axes. In the Tawang sector, the Chinese forces quickly overran Tawang and reached Sela pass. Similarly the Chinese forces penetrated Indian defences along Taksing-Limeking, Mechukha-Tato, Manigong-Tato, Gelling-Tuting and Kibithoo-Walong sectors. In the Western sector, the Chinese forces quickly overran Chip Chap Valley, Galwan Valley and Pangong Tso Lake. On 24 October, there was a lull in the fighting and Chinese Premier Zhou-en-Lai offered a peace proposal which was refused by Prime Minister Nehru. After the refusal of the peace proposal, fighting resumed on 14 November with Chinese forces re-commencing attack. After reaching its claim lines, on 19 November, the Chinese Premier Zhou-en-Lai declared a unilateral cease fire starting midnight 21 November. By the ceasefire, the Chinese forces had penetrated almost 100 km into Indian Territory in Arunachal Pradesh near Tezpur in Assam. After the ceasefire, the Chinese forces withdrew behind the McMahon line in the Eastern sector. In the Western sector the Chinese forces withdrew 20 km behind the line of actual control.

Present Situation

Presently, Arunachal Pradesh shares 160 km border with Bhutan in the East, 1030 km with China in the North and North-East and 440 km with Myanmar in the East and South. There are no major border disputes with Bhutan and Myanmar. However many disputes are still existing between India and China:-

(a) The International Border in both Western and Eastern Sectors are yet to be finalised.

(b) Due to non-signing by the Chinese representative during the 1914 Shimla Agreement, China still does not recognise the McMahon line

(c) China still claims almost all of Arunachal Pradesh calling it ‘Southern Tibet’.

(d) Issue of stapled visa by China to people from Arunachal Pradesh.

(e) Chinese objections to visits by senior Indian officials to Arunachal Pradesh.

(f) Frequent skirmishes and violent clashes along the Indo-Chinese border.

Chinese Infrastructure and Military Progress in Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR)

In the last few decades, China has systematically gone about developing infrastructure and military preparedness in TAR.

Infrastructure.       Despite the high altitudes of 7000 - 16000 ft and tough terrain, China has invested heavily to rapidly develop infrastructure in the region:-

Air Fields.     Considering the high altitudes, China has constructed many air bases with longer runways along the Indo-China border. The major airfields facing Arunachal Pradesh are Kongka Dzong, Hoping, Linzhi, Bangda and Kunming. Out of these Linzhi is located south of the Tsangpo (Brahmaputra) river at about 15 km only from the Arunachal border. Many Chinese military aircraft and other systems are regularly deployed in these bases.

Railways.      Some years back China inaugurated the Golmud to Lhasa railway line which is considered as the highest railway line in the world. This railway line has been extended to Shigatse this year. There are plans to extend the railway line to Nyalam on the Nepal border and Dromo on the Sikkim border. Further the railway line is being extended to Linzhi and Kunming. On the Western sector the same railway line is being extended to Khotan opposite Ladakh.

Roads. China has also invested heavily in developing the road connectivity in TAR. There are all weather roads running all along the border with India.

Dams. China is in the process of constructing three dams on the Yarlung Tsangpo. The first run-of-the-river dam at Zangmu has been operationalised in October 2015. The remaining dams are under construction. These would help in surplus power availability which in turn will lead to development in the area.

Underground Tunnels. Over the last few decades, China has built a vast network of tunnels. These tunnels are used to park/store Ballistic Missiles, Aircraft, Submarines/ships, armoured vehicles, ammunition dumps etc. It would not be wrong to say that China has built a ‘Great Underground Wall’. These tunnels would offer protection from direct attack from the air.

Indian Infrastructure and Military Progress in the Eastern Sector

In the last few decades, India has also attempted to develop the infrastructure along the Indo-China border. However, even 58 years after the Chinese attack in 1962, adequate emphasis to develop infrastructure and military capabilities in the region is lacking.

Infrastructure. Though attempts are on to develop the infrastructure, the attention and urgency are inadequate:-

Air Fields.     Almost all major airfields are located in the plains of Assam and West Bengal. Recently 7 Advanced Landing Grounds (ALG) has been re-laid/developed in Arunachal Pradesh at Pasighat, Tawang, Ziro, Menchukha, Alo, Tuting and Walong. Except for Pasighat where the runway length is about 2 km, rest runway lengths are below 1.5 km. These runway lengths will not support rapid deployment of troops and equipment on medium/heavy aircraft.

Railways Arunachal Pradesh is connected by railways to Bhalukpong and Naharlagun only, both of which are in the foothills. The Murkong Selek to Pasighat railway has been sanctioned but work has not yet commenced.

Roads. The Trans Arunachal road is planned and under construction. However, the vital Tezpur-Tawang, Likabali-Daporijo-Taksing, Likabali-Aalo, Pasighat-Tuting, Aalo-Mechukha-Manigong and Tezu-Kibithu roads are in poor condition.

Dams. India is still struggling to complete major dams over Siang, Subansiri and other rivers due to public opposition and environmental studies.

Blast Protection/ Underground Structures.    There are minimal blast protection to aircraft, key installations at Indian bases along the Eastern sector. Underground structures for protection from aerial attacks and nuclear radiation are also negligible. Lack of blast protection and underground shelters will render Indian aircraft and key installations vulnerable to aerial attacks.

Comparison of Military Capabilities

A brief comparison of military capabilities of both the countries is tabulated below:-

 

CHINA

INDIA

MILITARY BUDGET

US$166.107 billion (2.0% of GDP)

US$45.785 billion (2.5% of GDP)

MILITARY PERSONNEL

Active troops: 2,285,000 (800,000 reserve personnel)

Active troops: 1,325,000 (2,142,821 reserve personnel)

AIRCRAFT (ALL TYPES)

9500

3500

FIGHTER AIRCRAFT

2066

629

HELICOPTERS

1104

604

MAIN BATTLE TANKS

3000

600

BATTLE SHIPS

670

200

SUBMARINES

67 (NUCLEAR SUBMARINES INCLUDED)

15

NUCLEAR WARHEADS

250

110

 

Surface to Surface Missiles (SSM).       There is a major difference in the capabilities and numbers of SSMs of both countries. The Chinese SSM inventory includes the DF-5, DF-31A, DF-31, DF-4, DF-3A, DF-21 etc. The DF-5 has a range of 13000 km plus and the DF-31A with a range of 11000 km plus. The submarine launched missiles include the JL-2 with range of 7000 km plus. This implies that Chinese SSM coverage is up to middle of South America, Australia and full India.

Indian SSMs include the Agni-I, Agni-II, Agni-III, Prithvi-I, Prithvi-II and Prithvi-III. Agni-III has range of 3000 km. Recently India has successfully test fired the Agni-V with range of 5000 km, but is yet to be inducted. With the Agni-V Indian SSM coverage will include full China. India is yet to develop a Submarine launched missile.

Lessons for India  

In order to match China, India needs to implement some concrete steps towards development of infrastructure along the Eastern border. These have been divided into Immediate and Long Term measures:-

Immediate Measures.           These measures need to be expedited and completed in the next few years.

(a)    Construct/Expedite the following important roads (All weather two lane roads):-

(i)     Tezpur-Tawang Road.

(ii)    Likabali-Daporijo-Taksing Road.

(iii)   Likabali-Aalo-Menchukha-Manigong Road.

(iv)   Pasighat-Tuting Road.

(v)    Tezu-Kibithu Road.

(vi)   Trans-Arunachal Highway.

(b)   Construct airfield with adequate runway length at the following places:-

(i)     Tawang Area.

(ii)    Daporijo Area.

(iii)   Aalo Area.

(iv)   Hayuliang/Hawai Area.

(c)    Build adequate Blast Protection Shelters for aircraft and other critical assets at military/Air Force bases.

(d)   Build adequate underground structures for Command & Control Centres for nuclear protection.

(e)   Build few ammunition/fuel storage centres north of the Brahmaputra.

Long Term Measures.  One big step initiated by central govt is Atmanirbhar Bharat. Atmanirbhar Bharat is envisaged to boost domestic production and reduce dependence on other nations including the vital defense manufacturing sector. In addition there is a country wide movement to boycott Chinese products. The measures require strategic policy decisions at the national level and time bound implementation strategy as listed below..

(a) Indigenise production of military equipment (Aircraft, Warships, Tanks, etc).

(b) Involve Private Sector in military production.

(c) Invest more in Research and Development.

(d) Finalise Border Delineation with China.

(e) Sign a water sharing treaty with China.

Conclusion

India is an emerging world power aiming for a permanent membership of the Security Council. India is almost matching China in economic growth and is poised to grow into a major economic power. For India to sustain the growing economy, India requires a stable and peaceful neighbourhood. Stable and peaceful neighbourhood can be ensured and supported only through economic and military power. In order to match China, the only alternative for India is to expedite the development of military/strategic infrastructure along the Indo-China border at the earliest. Development of infrastructure will allow rapid mobilisation of military personnel and equipment. Blast protection shelters and underground infrastructure will provide survivability of key personnel and military assets. Immediate measures should be accompanied by long term national policies leading to indigenisation of defence production. Unless India produces her own high quality military aircraft, warships, weapons she cannot aspire to be a world leader. To emphasise on this critical importance of developing military/strategic infrastructure along the Indo-China border, a quote by Chinese strategist Sun Tzu would be relevant.

“Victorious warriors win first and then go to war,

while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win”